The Great Divergence of the Stock Market and Unemployment & Where the Major Indices Stand Today
Stocks rebounded this past week, but the market is still looking for a catalyst to break higher or lower when much is still uncertain about the outlook of the economy.
The Nasdaq 100 Index has been a bright spot. The Index, dominated by big tech stocks, inched its way back into positive territory for 2020, rallying nearly 6% this week. Weakness in financial and industrial shares tempered gains of other indices. However, both the S&P 500 and the Dow had gains over 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
The jobs numbers continue to be brutal, even if investors shrug them off. At some point, the market will have to contend with the real costs. Take a look at the chart below and let those numbers sink in...
Investors seem to be betting on an end to the crisis, but the travails of those millions of laid-off workers are going to ripple across the economy. The market has "priced in" a bad jobs report. It isn't clear yet that the market has priced in how long and arduous climbing out of this hole is going to be.
Where the Major Indices Stand Today
The Dow Jones
Close price (futures contract) on May 8, 2020: 24,286
Gain/Loss for the week: 2.98%
Prior date of price range before pandemic: January 28, 2019
Value Loss Period: 467 Days
The S&P 500
Close price (futures contract) on May 8, 2020: 2,928.50
Gain/Loss for the week: 3.96%
Prior date of price range before pandemic: October 10, 2019
Value Loss Period: 212 Days
The Nasdaq 100
Close price (futures contract) on May 8, 2020: 9,218.25
Gain/Loss for the week: 5.93%
Prior date of price range before pandemic: February 4, 2020
Value Loss Period: 95 Days